Deflation is the scariest word! The FOMC statement last night managed somehow to avoid saying what surely should be what is on every member of the FOMCs’ lips- DEFLATION. The recent Federal Reserve Bank regional surveys have shown that inflation is falling and quickly, and the recent Business surveys from ISM in the US have […]
Current market fundamentals — FIU
It is becoming difficult to trade on fundamentals at the moment. The markets are dominated by sentiment which in itself is being driven by political noise. Firstly, the US Treasury market back up in yields has not been driven by a rise in inflation expectations as would have been expected. In fact forward inflation expectations […]
Making sense of all that is driving the financial markets is certainly not easy at the moment — FIU
The equity markets “Christmas” rally has been fuelled by the expectation of a deal to avert the US fiscal cliff and the imminent release of the next tranche of financial loans to Greece. Both of which to me seem little to cheer about. There should be a deal between the Republicans and the Democrats to […]
What is Bernanke’s plan? — FIU
When I listen to Central Bankers these days I am hearing so much less than what the rest of the markets seem to hear. So when last Friday I heard Bernanke stating that the bar for further QE was very high, others heard him say that the Fed was just about to embark on another […]
Uncertainty is on the up again — FIU
Uncertainty is on the up again. Fixed Income markets have traded in a narrow range over the past weeks after the volatility caused by last month’s US Employment report. It has impacted the Historical Interest Rate volatility. However unlike previous declines in Historical volatilities, the Implied Volatilities over the past few days have reversed any […]