Many questions have been asked as to why there was such a dramatic move to higher US Treasury yields last week. And amid those questions there have been many statements as to how the bond market will perform for the next quarter. Firstly, as I pointed out last week, the “Big Compromise” does little to […]
Making sense of all that is driving the financial markets is certainly not easy at the moment — FIU
The equity markets “Christmas” rally has been fuelled by the expectation of a deal to avert the US fiscal cliff and the imminent release of the next tranche of financial loans to Greece. Both of which to me seem little to cheer about. There should be a deal between the Republicans and the Democrats to […]
Fixed Income and the Markets-ahead of US elections — FIU
As we go into the US elections the market seems to be positioned for an Obama re-election and the latest opinion polls of the swing states seem to suggest that too. The market view seems to be that an Obama win will see 10yr US Treasury yields at 1.50% and a Romney victory would see […]
QE3 is now ruled out for this year — FIU
Ben Bernanke’s speech is very dull but has an important paragraph near the end. “As I have discussed today, it is also true that nontraditional policies are relatively more difficult to apply, at least given the present state of our knowledge. Estimates of the effects of nontraditional policies on economic activity and inflation are uncertain, […]
Safe Haven Bonds — FIU
After a three day sell-off in “Safe Haven Bonds” which have seen 10yr Bund yields rise 23bp and 30yr US Treasury prices fall 5 points from Thursday’s highs some reflection needs to take place. On Friday I said that the peripheral bond markets needed to reflect that the ECB President was leaving all the hard […]