Ben Bernanke’s speech is very dull but has an important paragraph near the end.
“As I have discussed today, it is also true that nontraditional policies are relatively more difficult to apply, at least given the present state of our knowledge. Estimates of the effects of nontraditional policies on economic activity and inflation are uncertain, and the use of nontraditional policies involves costs beyond those generally associated with more-standard policies. Consequently, the bar for the use of nontraditional policies is higher than for traditional policies.
In addition, in the present context, nontraditional policies share the limitations of monetary policy more generally: Monetary policy cannot achieve by itself what a broader and more balanced set of economic policies might achieve; in particular, it cannot neutralize the fiscal and financial risks that the country faces. It certainly cannot fine-tune economic outcomes. ”
I have highlighted the important wording here that really casts doubt on any new QE being announced at the September FOMC meeting. Because the US economic situation isn’t bad enough yet for the FOMC to take the risk and the bar for its use has not been breached yet.
US Treasury bonds are rallying a little here and should now grind to lower yields as we will have some month-end buying.
Assets that were pricing in some more QE, i.e commodities and equities will suffer here.
Have a good weekend
