The very weak US Employment data from Friday is being used as a reason to expect QE3 to be announced at the next FOMC meeting June 20th. Tonight’s Fed Beige Book will give us a better idea of the economic data that the Fed will be seeing, but yesterday two Fed governors , Bullard and […]
Betting on a return of the Deutsche Mark! — FIU
Betting on a return of the DeutscheMark! Whilst the news yesterday centered on the fall in US 10yr Treasury yields to levels not seen since 1946, the bigger news maybe that the new German 2yr Bond at one stage yesterday traded above 100. Given that the coupon on the Bond is zero percent than that […]
The Deflation risk continues to grow — FIU
The Deflation risk continues to grow. Yesterday’s Richmond Federal Reserve Manufacturing Survey was weaker than the market consensus, and similarly to the Phili Fed survey I highlighted last week, will begin to worry the FOMC that deflation is coming back to worry the Manufacturing Industries. We are back into territory that has triggered further monetary […]
Philadelphia Fed Survey
The Philadelphia Fed survey was a shocker yesterday. The most reliable source of information on the US Manufacturing industry had plenty of weak components and now points to a contraction in the US economy -if confirmed in actual data this is a real game changer for the US Federal reserve and the US Financial markets. […]
The decline in Commodities opens the window for deflation
The decline in Commodities opens the window for deflation.- so US 10yr yields look cheap at 1.82%! The sell-off in commodities started in Asia yesterday after the US had marched the complex higher on Friday on optimism that the weak US employment report could stir the Fed into QE3. Steep falls with Copper down near […]