So where are we and where are we going? Most of the focus remains on the Euro zone and the continual “kicking of the can down the road”. But yesterday also saw some realisation that the situation in the rest of the world is deteriorating as well. China’s Trade Data showed that the strength of […]
Uncertainty is on the up again — FIU
Uncertainty is on the up again. Fixed Income markets have traded in a narrow range over the past weeks after the volatility caused by last month’s US Employment report. It has impacted the Historical Interest Rate volatility. However unlike previous declines in Historical volatilities, the Implied Volatilities over the past few days have reversed any […]
Euro-Summit Surprised
When a broad and unspecific deal is so hard come by- and some have used blackmail- it is much harder to negotiate and fill in the details. This looks like a political deal to keep Monti in power. A long-term road map towards a fiscal union, so no sign of common Eurobonds ” in Merkel’s […]
Fixed Income Markets — The Basics
Leaving aside for the moment the political sideshow of Europe, Fixed Income markets are undergoing a change in sentiment again. Falls in commodity markets are now feeding through into inflation expectations in the US. The recent declines in Oil and Metals in particular are signs of a slowing global economy and an exit from investors […]
The Phili Fed Survey — FIU
The Phili Fed survey is now showing that deflation is indeed now a real risk in the US economy. If the Fed hadn’t announced an extension of Operation Twist last night, I would have said that they would certainly be looking at additional stimulus as soon as possible. The Survey released today had more Mid- […]